This page re-written on 10th March 2018
- Peer reviews
- Book introduction as drafted today,
- A university course in Macro-economic design is available
- Optional, or mandatory, reading for students.
Timothy Hosking's Expert Review
Timothy Hosking is a building economist
The following are key economics models taught at universities. They all have some well-considered logic. But when you take into account Behavioural Economics they all contain fatal flaws.
1. Keynesian Economics – an excellent understanding of managing economic cycles. My concern was that the human behaviour has a narrow pattern of normal - going between exuberance and panic and requiring a control tighter than what governments were capable of and politicians willing to react to. An easier, quicker adjusting model, along clearer defined parameters, would be the Ingram Model.
2. Laissez Faire Capitalism – uncontrolled competition consumes wealth with most of the competitors drained and few very well off. Wealth stripping means that the consumer base is impoverished and fewer of the competitors survive. A restricted field would mean more can healthily compete and grow themselves and the economy. The Ingram Model is not a complete solution but aids the prevention of wealth stripping.
3. Monetarism – The Ingram Model would replace this in a more controlled and less volatile fashion.
4. Marxism – The goal of social sharing of resources was raised during the period of vast wealth differences. Unfortunately, this was only partly resolved by revolution. Behavioural Economics was replaced by desire and ignored the fact that people want more. Marxism replaced the obstructions of the Nobility with that of their system. By curbing wealth stripping the Ingram Model moves in the right direction.
5. Game Theory, Zero Sum Games – John Nash (Beautiful Mind), John Neuman amongst others. These brilliant models are corrupted in a Macro environment by political interference, slow reaction times and Dualism. In a sense they work when their scope expands to include these interferences but they become less relevant to the problem. The Ingram Model will curb the interferences allowing the Macro Economic scope to be reduced to the immediate problem.
6. Positive Money – This influential UK group is looking at what some people call ‘QE for the people’ whereby money is created and given to the government or the people to spend rather that using the Keynesian ‘borrow and spend’ approach or reducing interest rates. The Ingram Model is significantly better thought out but is little known in the UK. It acts faster, protects small businesses better, has a better balance, better control, is less complicated, and has a damper which automatically protects the economy and savings if too much money is created.
Please note that not all of the reviewers have studied the entire book. That mostly applies to the proposed currency and management systems. Reviewers who have, include Dr T Chowa and Riekie Cloete. Tim Hosking is well on the way. See his additional comments below these reviews.
Dr T Chowa, Lecturer (Actuarial Science & GSB), writes: There is literally no other person who has looked further and seen further with such clarity as Edward Ingram.
Riekie Cloete is an experienced macro-economist and past mentor of post-graduate students. She writes, "This Ingram School is the first I have ever seen which addresses the critical issues head on and in a sound, academic way."
Dr Rabi N. Mishra, Economist, and a Chief General Manager, Reserve Bank of India writes: “This book will inspire rethinking on the perimeters of economic thought and theory, and their practical use in policy making. A ‘should-read’ for budding researchers in Financial Economics to expand its horizon.”
Dr. Azam Ali ex Senior Economist Bank of Pakistan writes, “Dear Edward, I am following your endeavours of rewriting the economic framework with great interest and am on the same page with you on almost all the issues you raise from time to time.”
Professor Evelyn Chiloane-Tsoka from the University of South Africa, says “These ideas will become prescribed reading at universities.”
Alan Gray, Editor-in-Chief, NewsBlaze, writes, “The Macro-economic Design group’s elegant solution is so simple that it has eluded the big economic thinkers of our time, because everyone was looking for a complex solution to a complex problem.”
Professor Leon Brummer, professor of stock broking at the University of Pretoria, said of the new lending, savings and investment model, “This simplifies everything.”
Professor Daniel Makina from the University of South Africa, professor of finance, risk management and banking writes, “I am fascinated by what you are doing.”
Andrew Pampallis, Retired Head of Banking at the University of Johannesburg, mostly referring to the needed lending reforms, wrote, “When people realize what you have done all hell will break loose.”
Timothy Hosking, BSc (hons 1st class) QS and building economics, the author of a forthcoming book on community breakdown under financial stresses, writes: “No other school of economics resolves these critical social issues”
This book, is currently being re-written but is available as the first edition from the writer - contact firstname.lastname@example.org.
It has two parts and a number of supplementary appendices for those needing further information. It aims to create a new model for the economies of nations, not a mathematical model, but a real functioning model, through a process of education, social media, and persuasion.
It is based upon many years of research which commenced in 1974 as a result of the author’s unhappiness with the way mortgage finance contracts operated. To him it seemed that they were ridiculously unsafe not only for the borrowers but also for the lenders. The basic alternative is in operation in Turkey and restricted to Civil Servants; but without the refinements which would enable it to be used in all kinds of conditions from high inflation to deflation and for every citizen.
The new lending and savings model, now named after the writer as the Ingram Lending and Savings (ILS) Model, is so effective, in theory, at helping the entire economy, that a panel of experts reviewing the findings in 2004 were too shy to endorse it. That is, until no one could find any fault. Then for a further review it was taken to the Institute of Actuaries’ head office in London. They also endorsed it, saying after the meeting “I will never forget this day”.
Why then has It not been adopted universally? Initially it was intellectual property. Later it was the bankers and their advisers who refused to ask questions and so no solutions to problems unknown could be found and applied. Writing it up has taken a long time but now it is done. It will become a part of degree courses. That was expected, and promises have been made.
It proved to be necessary to convince economists on what exact basis it should be accepted, and so further researches had to be done. The outcome of those further researches was Part 1 of this book in which every aspect of national economies is looked at and redesigned – although that is not necessary to make this lending and savings model work and work well. It was more a search for completeness which drove the research. Every aspect and every possible objection had to be dealt with, for otherwise it just becomes another opinion piece.
The outcome is this book, which is partly a working paper on the way forward for national economies and how they may interact with one another in a largely automated and self-adjusting way. This automated response using feedback to hit a target is what control systems engineers like the writer seek when they design electrical control systems. The design outlined herein optimises the use of all of the resources available to a nation by allowing markets to determine prices, costs, and values in major parts of the economies of nations which are currently unable to make those adjustments for design / structural reasons. That is to say because of rules, regulations, accepted norms, laws etc.
This book assumes a mixed economy with competition encouraged and not too dependent upon any one industry or commodity such as oil. But of course, all economies can benefit from this research / working paper.
That done, in PART 2, we turn to the management of such an economy.
Again, as much automation as possible is sought and found. Interest rates will be market-based, not managed at central bank level. The central banks never made a good job of that anyway. This ensures that the best possible use is made of the limited stock of credit that is made available. That works because only the users of credit with an essential need for it (a mortgage for example), or a profitable use for the money, will be willing to pay the price.
All of the solutions offered are based upon classic and long accepted economic principles or well understood engineering principles.
There are new concepts which are also being developed by numerous other economists around the world. This is about optimising the quantity of money and the way in which new money is created and distributed. Every economy needs enough money with too little of it slowing the rate of purchase of goods and services. This part of economics has had little attention but can have a significant effect if it is not managed properly. Currently it is apparent to most people when it is pointed out, that too much money is created by lenders and not enough is created directly and put into circulation to provide a more balanced and better and more easily managed economy. Trying to boost an economy and injecting new money only by borrowing and spending is neither the best way forward not a desirable way forward. The outcome is too much debt, too long and deep economic / business cycles, and interest rates which, however low, cannot persuade people to borrow enough. Having a government borrow to spend instead, has its own disadvantages which can be very costly and having a government spend that kind of money on special projects is to leave the small and all other businesses waiting for the stimulus far too long.
Every business needs a constant level of demand if that is possible, not one which comes and goes because of the way the economy is managed.
As already stated, other economists are looking at this new concept, but not in the same holistic manner in which the author does. They have not done Part 1 of this book which enables the economy to essentially ‘float on inflation’ without much disturbance to the real economy. This concept is named after J M Keynes who wrote about it as something which does not happen, but which, if it did happen, would leave people wholly unaffected by the falling value of money. The writer has named it Keynes’ Floating Prices Platform, KFPP in honour of the man who pointed to it, even if he made no attempt to create it. This platform, is comprised of new financial contracts and market places which protect the entire economy. It could do the same if money were rising or falling in value but in a healthy economy, managed in the way outlined herein, a small amount of inflation should be maintained to create a sustained and optimal use of all of the nation’s resources. Prices are sticky downwards and take too long to adjust. It is better to keep the economy going and to accept that higher prices with higher incomes just need more money to keep moving.
Whereas politics can always destroy, or assist, this is not a part of the book. The politicians can take it or leave it.
There is a political issue – who controls the money supply. Maybe all nations and certainly most of them, have found that sooner or later they get an irresponsible government. They allow inflation to reach very high levels. It is suggested that nations protect themselves from this as best they can. They should hand the role of determining how much new money it is safe to create to a committee elected by the community, even if that role is limited to placing a cap upon the maximum amount which can be created p.a. But it is a bit more complicated than that when it comes to the banking sector which can create new money in a very loosely defined way. So it is important to develop the right way forward on all that. Governments will want to have a pre-election boom. They must first establish the space, the headroom, to make it happen, and the committee must not stand in the way for otherwise it will get removed from power one day.
There is also another political issue – can trades unions force wages to rise faster and faster every year regardless of the inflationary consequences? That has happened in some economies and it can destroy any economy. Again, that is a political issue and is not a part of this book.
It is thought that the new economic design can out-perform the economies which we have today by something of the order of 2% p.a. in the developed world. This is a combination of the removal of unwanted costs, mostly risk and instability costs, the boost to confidence, removing the uncertainties of crowd / human behaviour on the economy, and the management instruments which are able to create sustainable and optimal conditions more closely to the upper limit than is possible with current economic models.
This book is the basis of a university course - the course in Macro-economic Design & Management. The world's first ever course in this subject. Two universities are taking the course with a view to making it a part of prescribed reading in their degree courses. Other academics are doing the same thing or making it mandatory or optional reading in their degree courses. No permission is needed and tutorial assistance can be applied for to Edward Ingram using Skype (use edwarding2 as the contact ID), or Google Hangouts classroom, (use email@example.com).