Monday, May 7, 2012

MACRO-ECONOMIC DESIGN

This home page has been revised again today 11th January 2018. Other pages have been edited recently. Check LATEST UPDATES.
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BACKGROUND

After seeing the trauma and social mayhem which was being caused by the way in which financial contracts were written, financial adviser, Edward C D Ingram decided to do something about it. Mr, Ingram showed how most of the unsafe financial contracts for savings and lending which were detroying people's lives and savings, can be re-written to protect them. The changes needed are relatively simple and the benefits are so enormous for the economy as a whole that some reasons for this had to be found before they could be accepted. Now that job has been done, and by extending the same principles to the remaining areas of the economy, even more significant reforms were found to be possible. In the latter case, new economic thinking by others has recently come to the same conclusion. 

When implemented, not if, this will help to narrow the divide between rich and poor - protecting people from all kinds of financial instabilities which rob them of their wealth, their homes, their businesses, and their families all over the world. See also Tim Hosking's comments which say much the same thing. Tim studies social breakdown in nations.

Everyone gets protected from inflation whilst inflation itself causes excess money to be mopped up in higher prices, values, and incomes which also mops up any excess spending, harmlessly bringing the inflation to an end. 

ADDING 2% P.A. TO NATIONAL ECONOMIC OUTPUT
Besides calming the electorate and winning elections for ruling parties, the confidence and financial stability created by this first set of changes to lending and savings contracts, will boost the economic output of nations by maybe as much as 1% p.a. indefinitey into the future.

Two other changes suggested may add 1% p.a. more:

  1. Enabling currencies to find thier optimum prices, may save half of world output from some degree of pricing uncertainty and risk
  2. And using monetary policy instruments which are more precise and address money stock problems which traditional economic policy does not usually address, the traditional austerity option for balancing budgets may be avoided, side-stepping needless recessions.
ECONOMICS MADE SIMPLE
Although economics as taught today is terribly complicated, it really does not need to be. Almost all of the complexity comes from the fairly obvious (when pointed out) mistakes being made.

Each mistake made in any complex system, of which an economy is just one example, leads to many unwanted problems all over the system. There are not enough instruments of intervention to address all of them and any intervention increases uncertainty as it takes resources from 'here' and adds them 'there'.

As readers are saying, if something like the changes proposed herein are not adopted very soon there will be wars, civil wars, and extremist governments all over the world.

As others are saying, having read the book, "If our nation does these things then all other nations will have to follow suit."

PEER REVIEWS

Please note that not all of the reviewers have studied the entire book. That mostly applies to the proposed currency and management systems. Reviewers who have, include Dr T Chowa and Riekie Cloete. Tim Hosking is well on the way. See his additional comments below these reviews.

Dr T Chowa, Lecturer (Actuarial Science & GSB), writes: "There is literally no other person who has looked further and seen further with such clarity as Edward Ingram."

Riekie Cloete is an experienced macro-economist and past mentor of post-graduate students. She writes, "This Ingram School is the first I have ever seen which addresses the critical issues head on and in a sound, academic way."

Dr Rabi N. Mishra, Economist, and a Chief General Manager, Reserve Bank of India writes: “This book will inspire rethinking on the perimeters of economic thought and theory, and their practical use in policy making. A ‘should-read’ for budding researchers in Financial Economics to expand its horizon.” 

Dr. Azam Ali ex Senior Economist Bank of Pakistan writes, “Dear Edward, I am following your endeavours of rewriting the economic framework with great interest and am on the same page with you on almost all the issues you raise from time to time.”

Professor Evelyn Chiloane-Tsoka from the University of South Africa, says “These ideas will become prescribed reading at universities.”

Alan Gray, Editor-in-Chief, NewsBlaze, writes, “The Macro-economic Design group’s elegant solution is so simple that it has eluded the big economic thinkers of our time, because everyone was looking for a complex solution to a complex problem.” 

Professor Leon Brummer, professor of stock broking at the University of Pretoria, said of the new lending, savings and investment model, “This simplifies everything.”

Professor Daniel Makina from the University of South Africa, professor of finance, risk management and banking writes, “I am fascinated by what you are doing.”

Andrew Pampallis, Retired Head of Banking at the University of Johannesburg, mostly referring to the needed lending reforms, wrote, “When people realize what you have done all hell will break loose.”

Timothy Hosking, BSc (hons 1st class) QS and building economics, the author of a forthcoming book on community breakdown under financial stresses, writes: “No other school of economics resolves these critical social issues”

Tim Hosking has studied around 40 schools of economics, (ways of viewing economies), put forward by economists over the past centuries. As he says, they all miss the key points. It is time for some new thinking. 

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Timothy Hosking's Expert Review of Macro-Economic Design and Management

This is also known as 
The Ingram School of Economics
or
The Ingram Model

The following are key economics models taught at universities. They all have some well-considered logic. But when you take into account Behavioural Economics they all contain fatal flaws.

1. Keynesian Economics – an excellent understanding of managing economic cycles. My concern was that the human behaviour has a narrow pattern of normal - going between exuberance and panic and requiring a control tighter than what governments were capable of and politicians willing to react to. An easier, quicker adjusting model, along clearer defined parameters, would be the Ingram Model.

2. Laissez Faire Capitalism – uncontrolled competition consumes wealth with most of the competitors drained and few very well off. Wealth stripping means that the consumer base is impoverished and fewer of the competitors survive. A restricted field would mean more can healthily compete and grow themselves and the economy. The Ingram Model is not a complete solution but aids the prevention of wealth stripping.

3. Monetarism – The Ingram Model would replace this in a more controlled and less volatile fashion.

4. Marxism The goal of social sharing of resources was raised during the period of vast wealth differences. Unfortunately, this was only partly resolved by revolution. Behavioural Economics was replaced by desire and ignored the fact that people want more. Marxis­­­m replaced the obstructions of the Nobility with that of their system. By curbing wealth stripping the Ingram Model moves in the right direction.


5. Game Theory, Zero Sum Games – John Nash (Beautiful Mind), John Neuman amongst others. These brilliant models are corrupted in a Macro environment by political interference, slow reaction times and Dualism. In a sense they work when their scope expands to include these interferences but they become less relevant to the problem. The Ingram Model will curb the interferences allowing the Macro Economic scope to be reduced to the immediate problem.

6. Positive Money – This influential UK group is looking at what some people call ‘QE for the people’ whereby money is created and given to the government or the people to spend rather that using the Keynesian ‘borrow and spend’ approach or reducing interest rates. The Ingram Model is significantly better thought out but is little known in the UK. It acts faster, protects small businesses better, has a better balance, better control, is less complicated, and has a damper which automatically protects the economy and savings if too much money is created.


UNIVERSITY COURSE

It is now possible to take an online university course in macro-economic design and managment. It starts with reading the BOOK SUMMARY on this website. 

To obtain additional course material free of charge, please apply to:

edward@ingrameconomics.com

You can study at your own pace and in your own time. When ready to take the exams and obtain a university graduation certificate you must pay for that. Otherwise, for now, the course is free.

BENEFITS
  1. Whether you take the examinations or not you will have an amazing learning experience. You will never see economics or banking in the same way again. You will clearly see where all the problems are coming from.
  2. You will have mastered tools which may assist you significantly in every-day financial life and in planning a business or a home loan.
  3. If you do well, you may be offered a job as a tutor or a future examiner for the course.
  4. When, not if, the nation decides to implement, hundreds of graduates will be needed by businesses and policy makers.
ABOUT THIS WEBSITE

AND OTHER LINKS

The BOOK SUMMARY page is easy to read.


Other pages give various insights all of which are brought together and expanded on in the course and in the books, the first of which is now available directly from the author, Edward C D Ingram. Scroll down for contact details.

Edward has written around 60 essays for www.fin24.com. This one caught the attention of the South African Treasury. They are arranging a meeting. 



The revised book title will be 'HOW TO END THE WORLD'S FINANCIAL AND ECONOMIC CHAOS.' 

NO POLITICS PLEASE

For the record, Edward does not do politics. He does not take sides. All political parties are welcome to ask their experts to take this course and study the books.

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ABOUT MACRO-ECONOMIC DESIGN AND MANAGEMENT

Macro-Economic Design is replacing traditional macro-economics as taught at universities. It takes a new direction. It is now formally recognised as a new school of thought - the Ingram School of Economics.

THE KEY
The key to it is to follow the example of engineers. When they design an aeroplane or any other complex dynamic system, the first task is to design the framework to be stable in its environment where gusts of one kind or another may hit it. In the case of economics those gusts are the changing rates of spending and inflation.

Creating a financially stable framework for an economy simplifies everything. It is then easier to pilot the aircraft / the economy and the instruments of control are fewer and simpler. They are also more effective.

There are four key units in the economy none of which behave in this way. None of them can adjust their prices properly as money falls in value.

The right price optimizes the use of the resource in question. Any other price re-distributes wealth and causes confusion and damage. 

In this sense, prices include anything which must be paid for, including incomes, assets, currencies, and various costs.

Those key units of the economy are:

#1 Financial services - your savings, pensions, and borrowing contracts. These are unsafe to use. 

#2 The rate of interest - the price of credit is managed and is not a market rate - this re-distributes wealth and wastes national resources. 

#3 The market in currency for international trade is not permitted to adjust to create a market price to balance imports with exports. 

#4 The market for international capital is all mixed up with the market for international trade, distorting the price of both markets. 

Self adjustable market prices in all of these units of the economy can be achieved with the right regulations, taxation, market structures, and with the right amount of effort to set them all up.

This will bring a chance of unending prosperity to nations - in the absence of all civil and international wars, which will then be less likely. 


IN A NUTSHELL

This is a master plan for the design of the world's economies and their management. 

WHY ONLY NOW?

Most - maybe almost all - economists do not have the skills required to do this kind of work. There is no other single faculty at any known university which teaches all of the skills needed in one course. This is the first course of its kind combining the teachings of as many faculties as needed to address the problems. 

CONTACT DETAILS ARE GIVEN BELOW


COPYRIGHT: Provided that you acknowledge the authors, that you fairly represent the views expressed and that you credit the Macro-economic Design Research Group (and where relevant any original source of the article in question) with due prominence, you may freely quote from articles on this website.
CONTACT
Edward C D Ingram travels a lot
Tel:+26329 2230487 at times but +27 12 547 5816 at other times
Cell: +263772900000 at times but +27 749660660 at other times
WhatsApp 00263 722 900 000 at all times
Skype: edwarding2 any time. Free download www.skype4free.com
email: edward@ingrameconomics.com

Available for seminar/workshop presentations

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